When Donald Trump was first elected President in November of 2016, stocks rallied and Treasury bonds sold off as traders bet that he would pursue policies such as tax cuts that would boost economic growth. They made similar bets on Monday, at least initially, as markets priced in higher odds of Trump winning again following the shocking assassination attempt on him over the weekend. Stocks rose, with traditional beneficiaries of Republican governance such as oil producers and gun-related companies among the leaders. Regional banks, which enjoyed substantial deregulation under the Trump administration, also rallied, as the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index ended the day up 3.0%. Long-term bond yields also rose, with the 30-year yield rising 0.056 percentage point to 4.457%, snapping a three-day fall. And yet, enthusiasm for the “Trump trade” seemed to fade late in the day. The S&P 500, which was up as much as 0.9% midday, dipped briefly into negative territory during the final hour of trading and ended up just 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 210.8 points, or 0.5%. The announcement of Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as Trump’s running mate at around 3pm on Monday may have had something to do with that. The author of best-selling book “Hillbilly Elegy,” Vance is an advocate for a more populist turn in Republican politics–one that could prove less friendly to big business. UnitedHealth Group, a likely target of populist politics due to its status as the nation’s largest health insurer, was up 3.8% early Monday but ended up just 0.8%. And asset manager BlackRock, a frequent punching bag for conservative populists, was little changed for most of the day but sold off in the final half hour of trading, closing 0.6% lower. Of course not everything was about politics on Monday. Macy’s sold off, falling 11.7% on news that it ended discussions with buyout suitors Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management. As Heard’s Jinjoo Lee writes, retail turnarounds aren't impossible, but they are rare. The spotlight now falls on the company’s new CEO, who formerly ran its higher-end Bloomingdale’s subsidiary, to see if he can revive the storied company’s fortunes. And Goldman Sachs rallied 2.6% after joining other major banks reporting big jumps in investment banking revenue. Investors may be hedging their bets, but evidently they aren’t overly worried about a populist surge. Here's what else we were watching: 
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